Blackhawk, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Blackhawk SD
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Blackhawk SD
Issued by: National Weather Service Rapid City, SD |
Updated: 1:09 am MDT Aug 15, 2025 |
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Overnight
 Mostly Cloudy
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Friday
 Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance T-storms
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Friday Night
 Slight Chance T-storms then Mostly Cloudy
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Saturday
 Partly Sunny then Chance T-storms
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Saturday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Sunday
 Mostly Sunny then Chance T-storms
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Sunday Night
 Slight Chance T-storms then Mostly Clear
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Monday
 Sunny then Slight Chance T-storms
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Monday Night
 Mostly Clear
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Lo 63 °F |
Hi 85 °F |
Lo 64 °F |
Hi 82 °F |
Lo 63 °F |
Hi 85 °F |
Lo 63 °F |
Hi 86 °F |
Lo 64 °F |
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
Overnight
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Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. West wind around 5 mph. |
Friday
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. |
Friday Night
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. |
Saturday
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A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. |
Saturday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 3am, then a slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Sunday
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A chance of showers between noon and 3pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Sunday Night
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly clear, with a low around 63. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph. |
Monday
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Sunny, with a high near 86. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. |
Monday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 64. |
Tuesday
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Sunny, with a high near 89. |
Tuesday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 65. |
Wednesday
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Sunny, with a high near 90. |
Wednesday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 66. |
Thursday
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Sunny, with a high near 89. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Blackhawk SD.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
111
FXUS63 KUNR 150543
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1143 PM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot through this evening, with heat indices around 100 degrees
across south-central SD.
- Near-critical fire weather conditions over northeastern WY and
portions of far southwestern SD through this afternoon.
- Daily chances for isolated thunderstorms, some of which could
be strong to severe, expected through the period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025
Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a midlevel disturbance over
the eastern Dakotas shifting into the Upper Midwest. Lingering
subsidence behind this wave is maintaining mostly clear skies
areawide, though some shallow cumulus is beginning to become evident
via satellite imagery. The most notable development is ongoing over
the eastern Black Hills/foothills, where more congested cumulus is
present. Latest surface analysis shows a weakening surface trof over
our eastern zones, with a trailing cold front steadily progressing
southward through the region. The 18z RAOB from Rapid City showed a
fairly deep, well-mixed boundary layer extending to around 3 km AGL
topped with a modest warm nose. However, a slightly more humid
boundary layer behind the approaching boundary combined with the
associated frontal lift and terrain-driven convergence may suffice
for convective initiation sometime in the next couple of hours.
Should initiation occur, MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and effective bulk
shear magnitudes of 35-40 kt may support organized, isolated general
to strong convection. More widespread convection is ongoing over
higher terrain of WY through the Four Corners region where a broad
area of enhanced midlevel to upper-level moisture is present per
water vapor imagery.
Farther east, HREF mean SBCAPE/0-6 km bulk shear magnitudes climb to
2-3 kJ/kg and 35-40 kt across south central SD this afternoon.
However, solutions are split: With higher CAPE, the cap holds in
forecast soundings; with sufficient mixing to break the cap,
boundary layer moisture decreases, owing to lower CAPE and less
favorable thermodynamic profiles on the whole. At least modest (~-25
J/kg or more) CIN values persist through peak heating per HREF
mean/median. Given no cumulus development so far this afternoon, any
convective initiation may be difficult to attain until 850 mb
frontogenesis arrives around or after 00z with the secondary
boundary behind the weakening surface trof. The SPC maintained a
level 1 of 5 (marginal) risk for severe weather in its latest
update, which is reasonable given the environment`s potential but
relatively low probability of convective initiation. Outside of
storm potential, heat indices continue to hover around 100 degrees.
Advisory criteria heat indices are a bit more localized than
anticipated owing to mixing; nonetheless, maintained the advisory
with this package. Drier heat is present over far southwestern SD
and prefrontal areas of northeastern WY, where observations have
occasionally reached Red Flag criteria this afternoon. Durations and
extents of critical fire weather conditions are expected to be
limited given marginal winds, so will not introduce any headlines at
this time. Beyond today, LREF combined probabilities of relative
humidities < 20% and winds > 10 mph are limited to less than 30%
throughout the period, so although very dry afternoons will persist
over portions of northeastern WY and far southwestern SD, critical
fire weather conditions are not expected.
Late tomorrow through the next several days, zonal flow aloft and
weak midlevel ridging will give way to increasingly southwesterly
flow. Early tomorrow, thunderstorm development will likely be
limited by neutral to increasing heights and a stingy cap. Should
initiation occur, a broad corridor of 60%+ probabilities of SBCAPE
over 1500 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear vector magnitudes over 35 kt
could easily support organized strong to severe thunderstorms. More
widespread convection will become increasingly probable later in the
afternoon/evening as a weak wave approaches along the eastern
periphery of the trof nosing into the region. Similar daily chances
for storms are likely through most of the period. Relatively weak
shear will further limit potential for strong/severe storms after
tomorrow; however, cannot rule out one or two such storms on any
given day.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued At 1141 PM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025
Strong thunderstorms over western SD east of the Black Hills will
continue eastward, with strong winds and hail. Storms will be into
central SD by 10z. MVFR conditions are expected in the heavier
precipitation. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the
TAF period. More storm development is expected Friday afternoon
into the evening, again with strong winds and hail possible.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Sherburn
AVIATION...13
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